Harris Retakes Lead in Critical Swing State: Polling Average

Vice President Kamala Harris retook her polling lead in the key battleground state of Michigan just a week before Election Day, according to one polling average.
Michigan is one of the handful of states likely to determine the outcome of the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump. Polls show a closely divided race in the Great Lakes State, which has bounced between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections.
Both candidates have devoted a substantial amount of time campaigning in Michigan over the past few weeks in hopes of winning over the last few undecided voters while also convincing their bases to head to the polls. This week, Harris campaigned in Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan.
Real Clear Politics’ latest polling average for the state suggests Harris has reclaimed a narrow lead. On Tuesday, the forecaster’s aggregation of recent polls showed Harris up 0.3 points over Trump, who flipped the average in his favor on October 9.
Michigan is the only battleground state where Harris leads in the forecaster’s polling average. On Tuesday, Trump held a 1.3-point lead in Arizona, a 0.7-point lead in Nevada, a 0.5-point lead in Wisconsin, a 0.4-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 0.9-point lead in North Carolina and a 2.3-point lead in Georgia.
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A Susquehanna Polling & Research poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from October 23 to 27, showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points (52 percent to 47 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from October 25 to 27, showed Trump up 1 point (50 percent to 49 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Anna Kelly, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, told Newsweek in a statement: “Even after the Democrats have raised and are spending $1 billion to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground, including Michigan, because his message is resonating with voters across the country.”
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment.
Michigan was Biden’s strongest battleground state in 2020. He carried it by 2.8 points, flipping it back to Democrats after Trump won it by 0.3 points in 2016. But the state has been a concern to Democrats this year, particularly amid outrage from the state’s Muslim-American community over the Biden administration’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.
There are about 206,000 registered Muslim voters in the state—many more than Biden’s 155,000-vote victory in 2020—and polls suggest some will either stay home or vote for other candidates because of the war. Harris has tried to put some daylight between herself and Biden on the issue, emphasizing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza on the campaign trail.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has been stronger for Harris. It shows her up 0.7 points in Michigan and hasn’t given Trump a lead in the state since the end of July.